The Senkaku Paradox and the Risk of Great Power War

also claims them. If China were to take control of one or more of the islands, the United States would, in theory, be obligated to come to Japan’s assistance to reestablish territorial control. While this threat is not necessarily imminent, it’s not inconceivable, says US defense strategy expert and Brookings Senior Fellow, Michael O’Hanlon. He posits that if the conflict between Japan, China, and the United States escalated, a major war between nuclear-armed countries could ensue.
The Senkaku islands are not the only place in the world where a small conflict could lead to a war between great powers. A small-scale Russian invasion on Narva, a small town in Estonia, a NATO alliance member, to “protect” a Russian-speaking enclave is another possible scenario which could lead to a military conflict between the United States and Russia.
What if, for example, Russia’s “little green men” seized control of this small community in Estonia? Or, what if China seized one of the uninhabited Senkaku islands now claimed and administered by Japan, or imposed a partial blockade of Taiwan? How can these types of conflicts be contained before they take the world to the brink of a nuclear catastrophe?
O’Hanlon’s recent book explores these questions of security and power in his new book “The Senkaku Paradox: Risking Great Power War Over Small Stakes.” He’ll join us to discuss his research and how a local crisis could escalate into a broader and much more dangerous threat to peace.