When Black Swans Aren't: Geopolitical Risk Management
Event Details
The past year has seen many seemingly unexpected events come to pass, from Brexit to the United States Presidential Election. The upheaval has continued into 2017: the rise of the National Front and Marine Le Pen in the French Election; ...... Read More
the growing fractures in long-standing international alliances and treatise like NATO, NAFTA, the European Union, and the Paris Agreement; and the wave of autocracy, nationalism, and populist retrenchment in the face of globalization.
However, are we witnessing a series of "black swan" events? Could we see any of this coming? What types of models and practices can be used to identify and absorb the myriad financial, strategic, political, and operational risks associated with the current global upheaval and the realities of the twin, competing forces of populism and globalization?
We'll begin with a keynote dialogue between two recognized experts in the field: Professor Guntram Werther of Temple University and Professor Tom Mockaitis of DePaul University.
Following the keynote discussion will be two panels of experts from the financial, insurance, political science, and macro-global fields that explore the current geopolitical risk climate. We'll discuss the effects and ramifications of globalization, the global wave of retrenchment and nationalism, and the changing nature of borders and failed states. How can companies properly manage geopolitical risk--whether through mitigation, avoidance, or transference--present in the world today?
Agenda
11:30 pm Sandwich Lunch Buffet
12:15 pm Keynote Dialogue: When Black Swans Aren’t
Professor Guntram Werther of Temple University and Professor Tom Mockaitis of DePaul University will discuss where we’ve been, where we are, and where we’re headed in the current geopolitical risk landscape while addressing the idea of “black swan” events.
1:30 pm Forward to the Past: Globalization, Retrenchment, and Returning to a Pre-WWI World
By some experts’ estimation, we have now entered the fifth wave of globalization and the world is feeling its effects—both positive and negative. While globalization has a strong economic benefit for some, it can have an equally strong negative consequence for others. The rise of populism, nationalism, and rapid retrenchment can be seen as a backlash against this globalist wave. As if in defiant response to the “end of history” declarations in the 1990’s, the world continues to be reshaped in seemingly unexpected ways. Longstanding international alliances like NATO, NAFTA, and the European Union now are on shakier footing.
Similarly, the ascent of energy technology and the possibility of American independence from foreign oil couple with a resurgence of a “Fortress America” mindset has long-ranging ramifications on the current international order. Complicating and contributing to this is the recent American exit from the Paris Agreement and American global leadership in combating climate change.
The world, remarkably, seems to be retreating to a shape similar to how it looked before World War I.
Our panel of experts will discuss the current trends in globalization, nationalism, and retrenchment—and how to factor these trends into a robust geopolitical risk management framework. What do you need to know and how can you appropriately address these risk factors whether through mitigation, avoidance, transference, or acceptance? Can these risks be priced? How can you translate this knowledge into action?
Panelists include experts in foreign policy, insurance, risk management, agriculture, and energy policy:
Professor Richard Farkas, Department of Political Science at DePaul University
Peter Lefkin, Senior Vice President of Government and External Affairs, Allianz
Michael Schmitt, Chief Risk Officer
Philip Karsting, Former Administrator, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
3:00 pm The Changing Nature of Borders and Failed States
The fifth wave of globalization has also changed the nature of borders: while porous to goods, borders remain only semipermeable to labor. However, conflict and poor economic situations have increased immigration, migration, and refugee travel. This has led to an inflection point between economic (and cultural) protectionism and the drive (and overall benefit) towards open borders and free trade. Coupled with the uncertainty of new—or the possible retreat from existing—trade agreements, the risks associated with investing or conducting business in a particular country can sometimes be hard to pinpoint.
Alongside these risk factors is the looming potential of a failed state. What happens when the state in which you are conducting business collapses, whether due to civil war, economic ruin, or environmental catastrophe (earthquake, epidemic, etc.)? Can you address (or presage) this possibility in your risk management framework? Outside of a completely failed state, the rise of authoritarianism presents similar risk factors: what effect does an uncertain legal or financial system of the host country have on any contracts or business?
Our panel of experts will discuss these topics through the lens of several case studies, from the Middle East to South America to Africa. How have companies addressed these issues in the past? What worked then? What might not work now? How can you assess (and price) these risks?
Panelists include experts in foreign policy, crisis management, insurance, and predictive analytics:
Professor Scott Hibbard, Department of Political Science at DePaul University
John Minor, Director of Crisis Management/Political Risk, Aon
Matt Shapiro, Director of Global Markets, Predata
Others TBA
4:30 pm Reception
Speaker Biographies
Keynote Speaker Bios
Professor Guntram Werther
Guntram F. A Werther is a full Professor teaching Honors integrative assessment and Capstone strategic management at the Fox School of Business, Temple University. His doctorate is from Washington University in St. Louis (1990), being defended with distinction and twice nominated best doctoral dissertation in the USA within his field. It was published as the best book in its field in 1992 and is still in print and frequently quoted today. The key foresight themes of this 1990’s work emerged since and have core foresight implications in contemporary and future global change.
In 2012-2016, Dr. Werther worked at top-of-field levels in five separate business disciplines. At top-of-government levels, the Program Manager of the Office of The Director of National Intelligence Proteus Futures Program wrote in 2012: “I believe that he is the leading practitioner of holistically forecasting future trends” (Auger 2012) and, in 2009, when this research was honored at the ODNI Intelligence Community Center for Academic Excellence, the Proteus’ Executive Director termed it “unequaled” (Wimbish III, 2009). The Society of Actuaries’ Extreme Risk Recognition Project selected him in 2012 to write a monograph on Extreme Event Foresight, Assessment and Management and, upon completion, the SOA Oversight Group Director and Munich RE Vice President stated in 2013, “His skills as a collaborator and insightful thinker would enhance even the strongest academic institution or research team.”
Examples of recent highest-level activities include being one of fourteen people globally selected to address 300 senior managers and CEO’s at the 2015 Aon Future Hazards Conference in Gold Coast, Australia, being invited speaker (2014) at the Harvard Law School, plenary speaker (2013) at the quadrennial meeting of over 1,000 members of the International Congress of Actuaries, codirecting a project on national-societal resilience (2013-2015) with Dr. Reuven Gal (National Security Council – Israel), being interviewed (2013) on industry model use best practice together with the Director of PricewaterhouseCoopers and Vice President of Munich RE, and being plenary or keynote speaker at numerous top-of-field events. Four of the six articles in the AF&S nationalsocietal resilience special forum made the top-50-most-read-ever list in Sage journal’s ranking with Dr. Werther’s articles ranking #19th and #47th.
Since 1992, Dr. Werther's research has focused on: 1) holistically explaining emerging regional and global change dynamics, 2) holistically forecasting emerging futures, 3) developing better rare event foresight and risk assessments within regional and global markets, and 4) explaining the implications for strategy and the management of international operations (efficiency/comparative advantage) of emerging conflict (insurgency) styles.
Professor Tom Mockaitis
THOMAS R. MOCKAITIS is a Professor of History at DePaul University. He conducts international presentations about terrorism and counterterrorism (CT) for various programs with other experts through the Center for Civil-Military Relations at the Naval Post-Graduate School. He was the 2004 Eisenhower Chair at the Royal Military Academy of the Netherlands. He has also lectured at the U.S. National Intelligence University, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) School, the U.S. Marine Corps Command and Staff College, and the Canadian Forces Staff College; he has presented papers at the Pearson Peacekeeping Center (Canada), the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst (UK), and the Austrian National Defense Academy.
A frequent media commentator on terrorism and security matters, Dr. Mockaitis has appeared on Public Television, National Public Radio, BBC World News, all major Chicago TV stations, and various local radio programs. He appears regularly as a terrorism expert for WGN-TV News. He is the 2008 recipient of the DePaul Liberal Arts and Sciences Cortelyou-Lowery Award for Excellence in Teaching, Scholarship, and Service. Dr. Mockaitis is the author of Soldiers of Misfortune? (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2014); Avoiding the Slippery Slope: Mounting Interventions (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2013); The Iraq War: A Documentary and Reference Guide (Santa Barbara, CA: ABC-Clio/Greenwood: 2012); Osama bin Laden: A Biography (Westport, CT: Greenwood, 2010); Iraq and the Challenge of Counterinsurgency (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2008); The “New” Terrorism: Myths and Reality (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2007); The Iraq War: Learning from the Past, Adapting to the Present, and Preparing for the Future (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2007); Peacekeeping and Intrastate Conflict: the Sword or the Olive Branch? (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1999); British Counterinsurgency in the Post-Imperial Era (Manchester, UK: University of Manchester Press, 1995); and British Counterinsurgency, 1919-1960 (London, UK: Macmillan, 1990). He co-edited Grand Strategy and the War on Terrorism with Paul Rich (London, UK: Frank Cass, 2003); and The Future of Peace Operations: Old Challenges for a New Century with Erwin Schmidt (a special issue of Small Wars and Insurgencies, London, UK: Taylor and Francis 2004). He is an editor of Small Wars and Insurgencies and has also published numerous articles on unconventional conflict.
His most recent work, Conventional and Unconventional War: A History of Conflict in the Modern World is forthcoming from ABC-Clio/Praeger. Dr. Mockaitis earned his B.A. in European history from Allegheny College, and his M.A. and Ph.D. in modern British and Irish history from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Panel 1 Speaker Bios
Professor Richard Farkas
Dick Farkas is a professor of Political Science at DePaul University. He is in his 44rd year teaching about Central and East European Politics. He has lectured recently in Russia, Poland, Hungary, Bosnia, Ukraine and Croatia and in forty-one countries altogether. His research compares strategies for political and economic development in post-Communist and post-conflict environments. Prof. Farkas has published for both academic and public audiences, consulted for some of the largest corporations in the US, and has frequently appeared on US and international media. Of special interest to this conference, he was an original consultant for McDonald’s venture into Communist countries beginning in the ‘80’s and is currently involved in projects in Ukraine and Bosnia – two systems crippled by ethnic and political conflict.
Phillip Karsting
Phil Karsting served as Administrator of USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service from May 2013 to January 2017. Appointed during the second term of the Obama Administration, he came to the position having worked more than 22 years on agricultural policy in the United States Senate.
Immediately prior to joining FAS Karsting served as Chief of Staff to Senator Herb Kohl (D-WI), Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Agriculture, Rural Development and Related Agencies. Karsting also served as Senior Analyst on the Democratic Staff of the Senate Budget Committee and began his Capitol Hill service as Legislative Assistant to Senator Jim Exon(D-NE).
During his time in the Senate he served on the Senate Bi-partisan Chiefs of Staff steering committee and as a Senior Fellow with the John C. Stennis Center for Public Service Leadership. In 2013 he developed and taught curriculum on legislative process and committee procedures to congressional staff in Liberia, a country recovering from successive civil wars.
Karsting’s association with American agriculture began in his family's farm supply business in rural Blue Hill, Nebraska. He received a Bachelors Degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in 1985. In 2003 Karsting took a sabbatical from public policy to study culinary arts at New York’s French Culinary Institute, which later honored with a distinguished alumni award.
During his tenure at FAS, he led successful internal transformation to improve workforce cohesion and morale. That effort resulted in a 10-year high in agency “leadership” and “job satisfaction” as measured by the Federal Employee Viewpoint Survey (FEVS) and garnered statistically significant improvements in 93% of the indicators measured by FEVS. FAS rose more that 100 positions inthe 2016 “Best Places to Work” rankings.
Peter Lefkin
Peter Lefkin is Senior Vice President of Government and External Affairs for Allianz of America Corporation. Hired as an Assistant Vice President in 1988 to open the Fireman’s Fund Washington D.C. Government Relations Office, he assumed an increasing level of responsibility before being named as Senior Vice President and Government and External Affairs Department Head in 1996. In this capacity he led the company’s state and federal lobbying efforts and was a liaison to national company and distribution trade associations.
In 2002, Mr. Lefkin assumed a parallel and enhanced role for Allianz of America, which includes, Allianz Global Corporate and Specialty, Allianz Life, U.S. PIMCO Advisors, Allianz Global Investors, Allianz Global Assistance, Euler Hermes and several other U.S. affiliates. Along with Brussels and Berlin, Washington, DC is one of three global government affairs representative offices of Allianz, SE. Until October 1988, Mr. Lefkin was Federal Affairs Counsel to the American Insurance Association (AIA), a position he held for three years. Prior to his work for AIA, Mr. Lefkin served as Legislative Counsel for Representative Matthew J. Rinaldo (R-NJ), the ranking minority leader of the House Subcommittee on Telecommunications, Consumer Protection and Finance. In the early 1980s, Mr. Lefkin was a staff attorney in the Office of General Counsel of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
A cum laude graduate of Georgetown University School of Foreign Service (1977), Mr. Lefkin received his Masters of Public Administration and Juris Doctorate from Syracuse University in 1980 and is a member of the Connecticut and District of Columbia Bars.
Mr. Lefkin served as past Chairman of the Government Affairs Council for the Financial Services Roundtable, as well as Chairman of the Government Affairs Committee of the American Insurance Association and the Organization for International Investment. He is the immediate past Chairman of the Government Affairs Committee of the Insured Retirement Institute and represents Allianz Asset Management on the Government Affairs Committee of the Investment Company Institute. He is also a member of the Board of Directors for the Organization for International Investment, which is a trade association comprised of U.S. subsidiaries of foreign owned companies. In addition, Peter serves on the Board of Directors of the German American Business Council, is the Co-Chair of the Business Advisory Group of the Congressional Study Group on Germany and is a member of the Advisory Committee for Moment Magazine.
An avid adventurer traveler, bicyclist, and hiker Peter has visited more than 75 countries and has climbed mountain peaks in Africa, the Russian Caucuses, Borneo, Sri Lanka, Peru, Ecuador, and Kyrgyzstan. He makes his home in Washington, D.C. and Lost River, West Virginia.
Michael Schmitt
Michael Schmitt has more than 25 years' experience managing complex derivatives portfolios for institutions such as Citadel, O'Connor and Associates/UBS-O'Connor and William Blair and Co. He was a founding partner of FHS Investments, LLC, a multi-strategy hedge fund. He has managed portfolios globally in developed- and developing-markets, and also across asset classes including equities, credit and commodities. His most recent role was as Head of Risk Management for Spot Trading, LLC, a Chicago-based proprietary trading firm active in listed options and futures markets.
Mr Schmitt holds an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, as well as an Economics degree from Cornell University. He resides with his wife and two children in Chicago's Lincoln Park neighborhood.
Panel 2 Speaker Bios
Professor Scott Hibbard
Scott Hibbard is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at DePaul University, where he teaches courses on American Foreign Policy, Middle East Politics, and International Relations. He also taught at the American University in Cairo as part of a Fulbright Award (2009-2010), and, more recently, was a visiting research fellow at the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies at Notre Dame (2017). Hibbard received his Ph.D. from Johns Hopkins University (2005), and holds advanced degrees from the London School of Economics and Political Science (MSc Political Theory, 1989), and Georgetown University (MA Liberal Studies, 1988). Hibbard also worked in the U.S. Government, where he served as a Program Officer at the United States Institute of Peace (1992 to 1997) and a legislative staff member in the United States Congress (1985-1992). Hibbard is the author of Religious Politics and Secular States: Egypt, India and the United States (Johns Hopkins University Press, September 2010), and co-author (with David Little) of Islamic Activism and U.S. Foreign Policy (Washington, DC: U.S. Institute of Peace Press, 1997). He is also a co-editor (with Aminah McCloud and Laith Saud) of An Introduction to Islam in the 21st Century (Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, March 2013). Currently, he is working on a book manuscript, tentatively entitled Political Islam and America’s Long War (forthcoming)
John Minor
Director of Crisis Management/Political Risk at Aon.
Matt Shapiro
Matt has more than a decade of experience in the political risk consulting business. He currently manages the Global Markets group at Predata, Inc., a cutting-edge predictive analytics platform working with institutional investors, multinational corporations and the intelligence community. Predata uses open-source digital and social information to quantify a spectrum of market-relevant country risks, including political volatility, macro-event risk, and election-related impacts. Previously, he served in several leadership roles at Eurasia Group, a boutique political risk advisory firm based in New York and Washington D.C., where he was responsible for business development, consulting, and product innovation. He holds a MSc in International Relations from Royal Holloway College, University of London, and a BA in History and English from Franklin & Marshall College.
the growing fractures in long-standing international alliances and treatise like NATO, NAFTA, the European Union, and the Paris Agreement; and the wave of autocracy, nationalism, and populist retrenchment in the face of globalization.
However, are we witnessing a series of "black swan" events? Could we see any of this coming? What types of models and practices can be used to identify and absorb the myriad financial, strategic, political, and operational risks associated with the current global upheaval and the realities of the twin, competing forces of populism and globalization?
We'll begin with a keynote dialogue between two recognized experts in the field: Professor Guntram Werther of Temple University and Professor Tom Mockaitis of DePaul University.
Following the keynote discussion will be two panels of experts from the financial, insurance, political science, and macro-global fields that explore the current geopolitical risk climate. We'll discuss the effects and ramifications of globalization, the global wave of retrenchment and nationalism, and the changing nature of borders and failed states. How can companies properly manage geopolitical risk--whether through mitigation, avoidance, or transference--present in the world today?
Agenda
11:30 pm Sandwich Lunch Buffet
12:15 pm Keynote Dialogue: When Black Swans Aren’t
Professor Guntram Werther of Temple University and Professor Tom Mockaitis of DePaul University will discuss where we’ve been, where we are, and where we’re headed in the current geopolitical risk landscape while addressing the idea of “black swan” events.
1:30 pm Forward to the Past: Globalization, Retrenchment, and Returning to a Pre-WWI World
By some experts’ estimation, we have now entered the fifth wave of globalization and the world is feeling its effects—both positive and negative. While globalization has a strong economic benefit for some, it can have an equally strong negative consequence for others. The rise of populism, nationalism, and rapid retrenchment can be seen as a backlash against this globalist wave. As if in defiant response to the “end of history” declarations in the 1990’s, the world continues to be reshaped in seemingly unexpected ways. Longstanding international alliances like NATO, NAFTA, and the European Union now are on shakier footing.
Similarly, the ascent of energy technology and the possibility of American independence from foreign oil couple with a resurgence of a “Fortress America” mindset has long-ranging ramifications on the current international order. Complicating and contributing to this is the recent American exit from the Paris Agreement and American global leadership in combating climate change.
The world, remarkably, seems to be retreating to a shape similar to how it looked before World War I.
Our panel of experts will discuss the current trends in globalization, nationalism, and retrenchment—and how to factor these trends into a robust geopolitical risk management framework. What do you need to know and how can you appropriately address these risk factors whether through mitigation, avoidance, transference, or acceptance? Can these risks be priced? How can you translate this knowledge into action?
Panelists include experts in foreign policy, insurance, risk management, agriculture, and energy policy:
Professor Richard Farkas, Department of Political Science at DePaul University
Peter Lefkin, Senior Vice President of Government and External Affairs, Allianz
Michael Schmitt, Chief Risk Officer
Philip Karsting, Former Administrator, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
3:00 pm The Changing Nature of Borders and Failed States
The fifth wave of globalization has also changed the nature of borders: while porous to goods, borders remain only semipermeable to labor. However, conflict and poor economic situations have increased immigration, migration, and refugee travel. This has led to an inflection point between economic (and cultural) protectionism and the drive (and overall benefit) towards open borders and free trade. Coupled with the uncertainty of new—or the possible retreat from existing—trade agreements, the risks associated with investing or conducting business in a particular country can sometimes be hard to pinpoint.
Alongside these risk factors is the looming potential of a failed state. What happens when the state in which you are conducting business collapses, whether due to civil war, economic ruin, or environmental catastrophe (earthquake, epidemic, etc.)? Can you address (or presage) this possibility in your risk management framework? Outside of a completely failed state, the rise of authoritarianism presents similar risk factors: what effect does an uncertain legal or financial system of the host country have on any contracts or business?
Our panel of experts will discuss these topics through the lens of several case studies, from the Middle East to South America to Africa. How have companies addressed these issues in the past? What worked then? What might not work now? How can you assess (and price) these risks?
Panelists include experts in foreign policy, crisis management, insurance, and predictive analytics:
Professor Scott Hibbard, Department of Political Science at DePaul University
John Minor, Director of Crisis Management/Political Risk, Aon
Matt Shapiro, Director of Global Markets, Predata
Others TBA
4:30 pm Reception
Speaker Biographies
Keynote Speaker Bios
Professor Guntram Werther
Guntram F. A Werther is a full Professor teaching Honors integrative assessment and Capstone strategic management at the Fox School of Business, Temple University. His doctorate is from Washington University in St. Louis (1990), being defended with distinction and twice nominated best doctoral dissertation in the USA within his field. It was published as the best book in its field in 1992 and is still in print and frequently quoted today. The key foresight themes of this 1990’s work emerged since and have core foresight implications in contemporary and future global change.
In 2012-2016, Dr. Werther worked at top-of-field levels in five separate business disciplines. At top-of-government levels, the Program Manager of the Office of The Director of National Intelligence Proteus Futures Program wrote in 2012: “I believe that he is the leading practitioner of holistically forecasting future trends” (Auger 2012) and, in 2009, when this research was honored at the ODNI Intelligence Community Center for Academic Excellence, the Proteus’ Executive Director termed it “unequaled” (Wimbish III, 2009). The Society of Actuaries’ Extreme Risk Recognition Project selected him in 2012 to write a monograph on Extreme Event Foresight, Assessment and Management and, upon completion, the SOA Oversight Group Director and Munich RE Vice President stated in 2013, “His skills as a collaborator and insightful thinker would enhance even the strongest academic institution or research team.”
Examples of recent highest-level activities include being one of fourteen people globally selected to address 300 senior managers and CEO’s at the 2015 Aon Future Hazards Conference in Gold Coast, Australia, being invited speaker (2014) at the Harvard Law School, plenary speaker (2013) at the quadrennial meeting of over 1,000 members of the International Congress of Actuaries, codirecting a project on national-societal resilience (2013-2015) with Dr. Reuven Gal (National Security Council – Israel), being interviewed (2013) on industry model use best practice together with the Director of PricewaterhouseCoopers and Vice President of Munich RE, and being plenary or keynote speaker at numerous top-of-field events. Four of the six articles in the AF&S nationalsocietal resilience special forum made the top-50-most-read-ever list in Sage journal’s ranking with Dr. Werther’s articles ranking #19th and #47th.
Since 1992, Dr. Werther's research has focused on: 1) holistically explaining emerging regional and global change dynamics, 2) holistically forecasting emerging futures, 3) developing better rare event foresight and risk assessments within regional and global markets, and 4) explaining the implications for strategy and the management of international operations (efficiency/comparative advantage) of emerging conflict (insurgency) styles.
Professor Tom Mockaitis
THOMAS R. MOCKAITIS is a Professor of History at DePaul University. He conducts international presentations about terrorism and counterterrorism (CT) for various programs with other experts through the Center for Civil-Military Relations at the Naval Post-Graduate School. He was the 2004 Eisenhower Chair at the Royal Military Academy of the Netherlands. He has also lectured at the U.S. National Intelligence University, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) School, the U.S. Marine Corps Command and Staff College, and the Canadian Forces Staff College; he has presented papers at the Pearson Peacekeeping Center (Canada), the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst (UK), and the Austrian National Defense Academy.
A frequent media commentator on terrorism and security matters, Dr. Mockaitis has appeared on Public Television, National Public Radio, BBC World News, all major Chicago TV stations, and various local radio programs. He appears regularly as a terrorism expert for WGN-TV News. He is the 2008 recipient of the DePaul Liberal Arts and Sciences Cortelyou-Lowery Award for Excellence in Teaching, Scholarship, and Service. Dr. Mockaitis is the author of Soldiers of Misfortune? (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2014); Avoiding the Slippery Slope: Mounting Interventions (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2013); The Iraq War: A Documentary and Reference Guide (Santa Barbara, CA: ABC-Clio/Greenwood: 2012); Osama bin Laden: A Biography (Westport, CT: Greenwood, 2010); Iraq and the Challenge of Counterinsurgency (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2008); The “New” Terrorism: Myths and Reality (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2007); The Iraq War: Learning from the Past, Adapting to the Present, and Preparing for the Future (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2007); Peacekeeping and Intrastate Conflict: the Sword or the Olive Branch? (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1999); British Counterinsurgency in the Post-Imperial Era (Manchester, UK: University of Manchester Press, 1995); and British Counterinsurgency, 1919-1960 (London, UK: Macmillan, 1990). He co-edited Grand Strategy and the War on Terrorism with Paul Rich (London, UK: Frank Cass, 2003); and The Future of Peace Operations: Old Challenges for a New Century with Erwin Schmidt (a special issue of Small Wars and Insurgencies, London, UK: Taylor and Francis 2004). He is an editor of Small Wars and Insurgencies and has also published numerous articles on unconventional conflict.
His most recent work, Conventional and Unconventional War: A History of Conflict in the Modern World is forthcoming from ABC-Clio/Praeger. Dr. Mockaitis earned his B.A. in European history from Allegheny College, and his M.A. and Ph.D. in modern British and Irish history from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Panel 1 Speaker Bios
Professor Richard Farkas
Dick Farkas is a professor of Political Science at DePaul University. He is in his 44rd year teaching about Central and East European Politics. He has lectured recently in Russia, Poland, Hungary, Bosnia, Ukraine and Croatia and in forty-one countries altogether. His research compares strategies for political and economic development in post-Communist and post-conflict environments. Prof. Farkas has published for both academic and public audiences, consulted for some of the largest corporations in the US, and has frequently appeared on US and international media. Of special interest to this conference, he was an original consultant for McDonald’s venture into Communist countries beginning in the ‘80’s and is currently involved in projects in Ukraine and Bosnia – two systems crippled by ethnic and political conflict.
Phillip Karsting
Phil Karsting served as Administrator of USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service from May 2013 to January 2017. Appointed during the second term of the Obama Administration, he came to the position having worked more than 22 years on agricultural policy in the United States Senate.
Immediately prior to joining FAS Karsting served as Chief of Staff to Senator Herb Kohl (D-WI), Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Agriculture, Rural Development and Related Agencies. Karsting also served as Senior Analyst on the Democratic Staff of the Senate Budget Committee and began his Capitol Hill service as Legislative Assistant to Senator Jim Exon(D-NE).
During his time in the Senate he served on the Senate Bi-partisan Chiefs of Staff steering committee and as a Senior Fellow with the John C. Stennis Center for Public Service Leadership. In 2013 he developed and taught curriculum on legislative process and committee procedures to congressional staff in Liberia, a country recovering from successive civil wars.
Karsting’s association with American agriculture began in his family's farm supply business in rural Blue Hill, Nebraska. He received a Bachelors Degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in 1985. In 2003 Karsting took a sabbatical from public policy to study culinary arts at New York’s French Culinary Institute, which later honored with a distinguished alumni award.
During his tenure at FAS, he led successful internal transformation to improve workforce cohesion and morale. That effort resulted in a 10-year high in agency “leadership” and “job satisfaction” as measured by the Federal Employee Viewpoint Survey (FEVS) and garnered statistically significant improvements in 93% of the indicators measured by FEVS. FAS rose more that 100 positions inthe 2016 “Best Places to Work” rankings.
Peter Lefkin
Peter Lefkin is Senior Vice President of Government and External Affairs for Allianz of America Corporation. Hired as an Assistant Vice President in 1988 to open the Fireman’s Fund Washington D.C. Government Relations Office, he assumed an increasing level of responsibility before being named as Senior Vice President and Government and External Affairs Department Head in 1996. In this capacity he led the company’s state and federal lobbying efforts and was a liaison to national company and distribution trade associations.
In 2002, Mr. Lefkin assumed a parallel and enhanced role for Allianz of America, which includes, Allianz Global Corporate and Specialty, Allianz Life, U.S. PIMCO Advisors, Allianz Global Investors, Allianz Global Assistance, Euler Hermes and several other U.S. affiliates. Along with Brussels and Berlin, Washington, DC is one of three global government affairs representative offices of Allianz, SE. Until October 1988, Mr. Lefkin was Federal Affairs Counsel to the American Insurance Association (AIA), a position he held for three years. Prior to his work for AIA, Mr. Lefkin served as Legislative Counsel for Representative Matthew J. Rinaldo (R-NJ), the ranking minority leader of the House Subcommittee on Telecommunications, Consumer Protection and Finance. In the early 1980s, Mr. Lefkin was a staff attorney in the Office of General Counsel of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
A cum laude graduate of Georgetown University School of Foreign Service (1977), Mr. Lefkin received his Masters of Public Administration and Juris Doctorate from Syracuse University in 1980 and is a member of the Connecticut and District of Columbia Bars.
Mr. Lefkin served as past Chairman of the Government Affairs Council for the Financial Services Roundtable, as well as Chairman of the Government Affairs Committee of the American Insurance Association and the Organization for International Investment. He is the immediate past Chairman of the Government Affairs Committee of the Insured Retirement Institute and represents Allianz Asset Management on the Government Affairs Committee of the Investment Company Institute. He is also a member of the Board of Directors for the Organization for International Investment, which is a trade association comprised of U.S. subsidiaries of foreign owned companies. In addition, Peter serves on the Board of Directors of the German American Business Council, is the Co-Chair of the Business Advisory Group of the Congressional Study Group on Germany and is a member of the Advisory Committee for Moment Magazine.
An avid adventurer traveler, bicyclist, and hiker Peter has visited more than 75 countries and has climbed mountain peaks in Africa, the Russian Caucuses, Borneo, Sri Lanka, Peru, Ecuador, and Kyrgyzstan. He makes his home in Washington, D.C. and Lost River, West Virginia.
Michael Schmitt
Michael Schmitt has more than 25 years' experience managing complex derivatives portfolios for institutions such as Citadel, O'Connor and Associates/UBS-O'Connor and William Blair and Co. He was a founding partner of FHS Investments, LLC, a multi-strategy hedge fund. He has managed portfolios globally in developed- and developing-markets, and also across asset classes including equities, credit and commodities. His most recent role was as Head of Risk Management for Spot Trading, LLC, a Chicago-based proprietary trading firm active in listed options and futures markets.
Mr Schmitt holds an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, as well as an Economics degree from Cornell University. He resides with his wife and two children in Chicago's Lincoln Park neighborhood.
Panel 2 Speaker Bios
Professor Scott Hibbard
Scott Hibbard is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at DePaul University, where he teaches courses on American Foreign Policy, Middle East Politics, and International Relations. He also taught at the American University in Cairo as part of a Fulbright Award (2009-2010), and, more recently, was a visiting research fellow at the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies at Notre Dame (2017). Hibbard received his Ph.D. from Johns Hopkins University (2005), and holds advanced degrees from the London School of Economics and Political Science (MSc Political Theory, 1989), and Georgetown University (MA Liberal Studies, 1988). Hibbard also worked in the U.S. Government, where he served as a Program Officer at the United States Institute of Peace (1992 to 1997) and a legislative staff member in the United States Congress (1985-1992). Hibbard is the author of Religious Politics and Secular States: Egypt, India and the United States (Johns Hopkins University Press, September 2010), and co-author (with David Little) of Islamic Activism and U.S. Foreign Policy (Washington, DC: U.S. Institute of Peace Press, 1997). He is also a co-editor (with Aminah McCloud and Laith Saud) of An Introduction to Islam in the 21st Century (Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, March 2013). Currently, he is working on a book manuscript, tentatively entitled Political Islam and America’s Long War (forthcoming)
John Minor
Director of Crisis Management/Political Risk at Aon.
Matt Shapiro
Matt has more than a decade of experience in the political risk consulting business. He currently manages the Global Markets group at Predata, Inc., a cutting-edge predictive analytics platform working with institutional investors, multinational corporations and the intelligence community. Predata uses open-source digital and social information to quantify a spectrum of market-relevant country risks, including political volatility, macro-event risk, and election-related impacts. Previously, he served in several leadership roles at Eurasia Group, a boutique political risk advisory firm based in New York and Washington D.C., where he was responsible for business development, consulting, and product innovation. He holds a MSc in International Relations from Royal Holloway College, University of London, and a BA in History and English from Franklin & Marshall College.
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