The "Dictator’s Endgame": Explaining Military Behavior in Nonviolent Revolutions

Revolutions”
 
featuring
 
Aurel Croissant
Reagan-Fascell Democracy Fellow
 
moderated by
 
Shanthi Kalathil
Director, International Forum for Democratic Studies
Twitter: Follow @ThinkDemocracy and use #NEDEvents to join the conversation.
 
All cameras and media must register with NED public affairs.
Please email press@ned.org to register as a member of the press.
Dictators live dangerously. Historically, the most frequent threat to a dictator’s political survival comes from regime insiders. In recent decades, however, threats from nonviolent mass mobilizations have increased sharply. In a dictator’s endgame, when peaceful mass protests overwhelm a regime’s security forces, the ability to maintain the loyalty of the military is key to a dictator’s survival. When dictators lean on military support, however, they mayfind that the generals refuse to obey their orders. Even prior to the Arab Uprisings, the success or failure of dozens of popular uprisings were contingent upon the loyalty of the troops. If military allegiance plays such a critical role, what factors explain a military’s decision to support or abandon a dictatorship? In his presentation, scholar and civil-military relations expert Aurel Croissant will explore explanations for the varying outcomes of dictators’ endgames in the period from 1946 to 2014 and examine how military decisions impact post-revolt regime dynamics. He will conclude with lessons learned and thoughts on the implications of his research for democratic governments and democracy advocates.  
Aurel Croissant is professor of political science at Heidelberg University in Germany, where his research focuses on democratization, authoritarianism, civil-military relations, and Asian politics. He has published over 200 articles, book chapters, monographs, and edited volumes, appearing in English, German, Russian, Spanish, and Korean. Since 2012, he has served as co-editor of the journal Democratization and also serves on the editorial board of the Asian Journal of Political Science and the Journal of Contemporary Southeast Asian Affairs. He has provided consultancy services on democracy building for European institutions such as the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Transparency International, and the Dutch Foreign Ministry